“Watch out for the 22,” or for polarization?

The political scene has been very active in recent days. “Watch out for 2022,” declared former President Uribe after being released from house arrest, which had kept him confined to his El Ubérrimo estate. Days later, a poll by the National Consulting Center (CNC) revealed a striking figure: 78.1% of Colombians would not vote “for whoever Uribe says” in 2022. Meanwhile, some members of the Conservative Party and allied groups are calling for the resignation of Senator Julián Gallo of the FARC and for him to face trial in the ordinary courts, after the former guerrilla admitted responsibility for the 1995 murder of Conservative leader Álvaro Gómez Hurtado.

In Congress, the motion of no-confidence against the Minister of Defense Carlos Holmes Trujillo was voted on this week. Despite several parties having questioned the minister's role in light of allegations of police abuse during recent protests and the country's security in general, the decision of the House of Representatives was very clear: 136 congresspeople supported Trujillo's continued tenure in his position, versus a mere 24 votes against him. At the close of the vote, shouts like “the vandals lost!” were heard from representative Alfredo “Ape” Cuello.

Regarding President Iván Duque's cabinet, the Minister of the Interior, Alicia Arango, attempted to meet this week, unsuccessfully, with the indigenous minga that has been marching from their territories and made a first stop in Cali. “This minga is not about demands, but political,” stated Arango, while the Regional Indigenous Council of Cauca (CRIC) continued its journey towards Bogotá, seeking to meet directly with the president after rejecting the possibility of a meeting with the commission that the president had designated for that purpose.

Although this introduction may seem like a collection of political news from the country, the facts described here are not isolated. The phenomenon of political polarization has been a reality for several years in Colombia, resulting in, in the words of renowned North American political scientist Steven Levitsky, “the weakening of the basic norms of democracy.” While it is true that Levitsky associates polarization between parties in the United States with the racial problem, in Colombia there is another explanation for the deep division between sectors of national politics: the Peace Agreement with the now-defunct FARC guerrilla group and the multiple narratives derived from it.

Should the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP) be suppressed? Should the Mobile Anti-riot Squad (ESMAD) be dismantled? Glyphosate fumigation, yes or no? Closed lists in elections for collegiate bodies, as part of a political reform, or not? Fracking, yes or no? These are some of the questions that, since the discussions of the peace process, have not achieved a moderate consensus and seem, for the moment, to only admit two possible answers: yes or no. These dichotomies have not been discussed without resorting to the disqualifications and fallacies to which Colombian politics has accustomed us since peace was signed. For example, the Congress of the Republic.
The problematic aspect of all this is the risk that polarization poses to democracy and civil liberties. In a context like this, parties and their representatives fall into deep enmity, where the nullification of the other is the only possible scenario. Examples abound: “my antithesis cannot be part of political participation” or “I will only be satisfied if I see that leader in jail.” Since parties channel the popular will, or so it is assumed, polarization also pits the bases against each other, or in other words, citizens against each other. Look at Twitter for example.

Given this situation, the polarization we are seeing these days, with concern, clearly marks the beginning of the 2022 campaign. It's not just about politics, as poverty is on the rise and the middle class is swelling the ranks of the unemployed. This is a dangerous cocktail that does not distinguish between regimes or ideologies; it was seen with Chávez in Venezuela and with Trump in the United States. Therefore, the deck of presidential candidates must be examined with a magnifying glass.

Watch out for 2022?

This article began with a very suggestive phrase from former President Uribe: “Watch out for ”22.“ The next elections seem so close that the art of presidential ”futurology" is starting to gain traction.

Gustavo Petro: On one hand, Petro is one of those who benefits most from the polarization we’ve mentioned: his speeches replicate the annulment of the other side, particularly the institutional framework. Although he is known in the country, his ceiling is low due to the unfavorability and resistance he generates. Furthermore, if Alex Char opts to be a candidate, he will take votes away from Petro in one of his strongholds: the Caribbean Coast.

Sergio Fajardo: The former presidential candidate has the highest favorability rating, at 43%, according to Gallup. Fajardo performed well against Petro in regions such as Antioquia, Bogotá, and Norte de Santander in 2018, but his vote share was low on the Caribbean Coast. In addition, the former governor of Antioquia is beginning to face resistance within the Green Alliance, while losing allies such as Iván Marulanda, who has already entered the race.

Carlos Holmes Trujillo: The Minister of Defense won over the more “purist” sectors of his party, thanks to his strong defense of the public forces. However, Trujillo generates great revulsion on the far left of polarized Colombia. Some urban sectors also criticize him for police abuses in some cities.

Jorge Enrique Robledo: The Polo Democrático's biggest elector in the past congressional elections breaks ranks and, as he announced months ago, leaves his party in search of the Casa de Nariño. In a statement, the Polo indicated that next Saturday, October 24, they will hold an internal congress to decide through a vote on the departure of Robledo and his MOIR. The senator doesn't have it easy, as he is not well-known in several regions and some of his orthodox and statist stances are not accepted.

Alex Char: The former mayor of Barranquilla and potential presidential candidate enjoys strong support in the capital of Atlántico Department. His approval rating during his 2016–2019 term ranged between 85% and 95%, according to Invamer. However, his path to the presidency is beginning to face obstacles, such as allegations of corruption in contracting during his mayoral tenure. Additionally, he will have to win over voters in the center and west of the country where, unlike on the coast, the political machine does not operate during presidential elections (voting is based on opinion).

Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez: Similar to his Barranquilla counterpart, “Fico” Gutiérrez concluded his term as mayor of Medellín with a high approval rating. The former mayor has remained relevant in public opinion with his participation in a digital political discussion program. However, without an alliance with a party on the same political spectrum, “Fico” would not have a well-oiled candidacy.

Rodolfo Hernández: The former mayor of Bucaramanga, who promised to be the outsider in this contest, has not yet gained traction in the polls. Despite his efforts to travel the country and appear weekly on his program, Hernández has not made a national impact.

Juan Manuel Galán: Although Galán has been away from political discussions, his brother Carlos Fernando's good result in the Bogotá mayoral election was a huge boost for the Galán family. Juan Manuel is polling well, but he doesn't have a party and lacks greater national recognition.

And women? Colombia has never had a female president, and at this starting point, it's still unclear who will participate in the 2022 campaign. On the right, Martha Lucía Ramírez stands out, although her image is not very favorable, and she has lost the momentum she had when she placed third in 2014. In the Democratic Center, there are Paola Holguín and Paloma Valencia, but that party has never opted for a female candidate, except for Ángela Garzón in the case of the Bogotá mayoralty, who was ultimately “sacrificed” for the support of Miguel Uribe. On the left, Ángela María Robledo stands out, but she doesn't have a strong electoral niche or a specific party: she left the Green party amid controversy for having accepted to be Gustavo Petro's running mate, and she has distanced herself from Colombia Humana.

Here are some of the most well-positioned candidates, without neglecting that, as always, there is a long list of interested parties or those mentioned by their followers: Alejandro Gaviria, the rector of Los Andes; Camilo Romero, the former governor of Nariño; Alexander López Maya, senator from the Polo party; Francia Márquez, activist and social leader; Jorge Eduardo Londoño, senator and former governor of Boyacá; Carlos Amaya, former governor of Boyacá; Dilian Francisca Toro, former governor of the Valle del Cauca; and the list goes on…

Addendum: Roy Barreras resigned from the Party of the U, and it seems Congress will approve the reform allowing party changes. Where will he migrate? The answer is not very clear, but what is certain is that the Party of the U is slowly disintegrating, and its electoral support will end up benefiting a few parties heading into 2022.