The United States has a new president: Joseph “Joe” Robinette Biden Jr. (Democrat). However, the polls and the media, which had created an atmosphere of a resounding victory, were defeated in this contest because the election was closer than expected. Some claimed that Biden would sweep the popular vote, but the Democrat's lead over Donald Trump at this moment is just over four million (a lower figure than in past elections). Biden is the president with the highest number of votes in history, but Trump remains the candidate with the most votes. The outgoing president could comfortably be the opposition leader in half of a polarized country.
Meanwhile, President Trump continues to question the legality of votes in several states across the country, while also stating that he will not recognize the new president. The truth is that the difference in Electoral College votes is wide, making it seem unlikely that Trump's legal challenges will reach the Supreme Court of Justice. Although it was thought that his statements would put the country's institutions at risk, several Republican sectors have shown a tendency to recognize the results. Despite all that, President Biden will govern with a slim majority in the House of Representatives and, for now, will have the opposing Republican Party as the majority in the Senate. Biden will have a difficult time governing.
The new president is nearing his 78th birthday and has proclaimed himself a “transition” president. He will not seek reelection in 2024. He has been a senator since 1973 and was Barack Obama's Vice President (2008-2016). He ran with Kamala Harris, an African American senator from California with Indian and Jamaican roots. She will be the first woman in the vice presidency. Biden has been a friend to Colombia and advocates for a strategic alliance between the two countries. Recently, the president-elect said that “Trump politicized and undermined the bipartisan relationship with Colombia.” Some analysts point out that the bilateral agenda will remain the same (drug trafficking, trade, and Venezuela), but the way it is approached will change for the better.
Results and the Latin factor
The Electoral College votes, which is the institution that chooses the president based on popular vote results, are distributed as follows (for now): 290 for Biden (out of 270 needed) and 214 for Trump. The Democrat secured swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, an eminently Republican state like Arizona, and made a last-minute comeback in the hard-fought states of Georgia (still being counted) and Pennsylvania. Trump took Ohio and Florida, two jewels in the crown, but only managed to hold onto North Carolina among the most contested states. The final result could be 306 votes for Biden and 232 for Trump.
These elections leave an interesting lesson: the Latino vote, which according to the Pew Research Center is the largest minority with suffrage in the United States, is not uniform and is absorbed by political polarization. On one hand, Biden won in a key state like Arizona, which was last Democratic in Bill Clinton's re-election (1996). There, the vote of Latinos of Mexican origin could have been decisive (as well as the “push” from the family of the late Republican leader John McCain).
On the other hand, Trump won Florida by reducing his margin of defeat in Miami-Dade County and winning in others. The Latino vote of Colombian, Cuban, Puerto Rican, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan origin was motivated by Trump's anti-communist rhetoric in Florida. For the first time, a Republican candidate concentrated his efforts on winning the vote of this “large” minority.
The Democratic majority in the House and relations with Colombia
This election does not only define who will be president. The November 3rd elections renewed the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. In the case of the House, Democrats maintain the majority according to the final results and projections, but they lost several congresspeople in states like Florida, New Mexico, and South Carolina. Although House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (an octogenarian congresswoman from California) was re-elected with a wide margin of victory, negotiations within the Democratic Party will be difficult. With a lower number of congresspeople, Pelosi will have to reconcile with the more leftist wing of the Democratic party that questions her leadership.
In fact, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 31, of Puerto Rican descent, who entered Congress in 2018, has been one of the emerging leaders who make Pelosi tremble. Ocasio-Cortez beat her rival in New York's 14th district (Bronx and Queens) and will remain in the House. But the election yielded other historic results. The young Democrat Ritchie Torres, also from the Bronx, became the first openly gay Afro-Latino to reach Congress, and his main proposal is police reform.
Now, Republicans will also arrive with surprises in the House of Representatives, and as in the presidential elections, political polarization will be the rule and not the exception in legislative debates. The young conservative and real estate entrepreneur Madison Cawthorn will be the youngest congressman in modern history at 25 years old. Cawthorn holds anti-abortion and pro-gun stances, while also stating that the country is under the power of coastal elites and “leftists” like Pelosi and Ocasio-Cortez.
The Democratic majority in the House, reaffirmed by these elections, brings an additional element to US-Colombia relations. As has been pointed out, the bet by the government of Iván Duque, and his party, was to support the Republicans. For example, former president Uribe publicly supported María Elvira Salazar, a journalist of Cuban origin, a Republican, and now an elected congresswoman for Florida. This political message negatively affects Colombia's image in the lower house, where Democrats will “collect the bill” for the campaign actions of Uribe, Ambassador “Pacho” Santos, and other politicians. The issues discussed there that affect the country include, among others, human rights, international cooperation, and trade relations.
The Republican Senate and a call for sanity
Despite several analysts predicting that the Democratic Party would snatch control of the Senate from the Republicans, who have held it since 2014, at this moment it appears that the Grand Old Party will be a majority in the upper house. The Republican Party currently has 48 senators, among whom Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), the leader of the Republican majority, stands out. McConnell and other Republicans, such as Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, have distanced themselves from the president's stance on suspending the vote count and have called for the federal government not to interfere in each state's processes. This last signal could mean that the establishment Would be willing to recognize a favorable outcome for Biden and respect mutual tolerance between both parties.
On the other hand, Democrats are winning 46 Senate seats. It's worth remembering that this election only filled 34 seats out of 100 (one-third), and that most of these were held by Republicans. The role of the upper chamber is crucial in confirming officials nominated by the government, as well as federal judges and Supreme Court justices. Therefore, Biden's presidency will be constrained by the Senate, and its decisions on budgetary and other legislative matters will be blocked.